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Our quarterly review of the main themes shaping global investment markets, and what they could mean for your portfolio. This issue covers the third quarter of 2026.
What’s inside this issue
Shares made uneven progress as renewed energy pressures clouded the outlook for inflation and interest rates. We look at why headline indices and individual holdings told different stories, how the AI theme is shifting towards real commercial returns, rate rises from the US Federal Reserve and the ECB, what higher swap rates mean for mortgages, and the funding pressures facing the government ahead of the Budget.
The quarter in numbers
The Nasdaq rose 2.47 per cent and the S&P 500 2.03 per cent, but the Russell 2000 index of smaller US companies fell 7.52 per cent. The FTSE 100 added around 1 per cent, helped by energy, financials and commodities. The Bank of England held at 3.75 per cent, while the Federal Reserve raised its range to 3.75 to 4.00 per cent and the ECB lifted its deposit rate to 2.50 per cent. Brent crude reached $106 a barrel by mid September, and UK inflation was 3.1 per cent in the year to August.
