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Our monthly read on what moved investment markets over the past month and what it could mean looking ahead. This issue looks back at July.
In this issue
A new Prime Minister brought a lift in consumer mood, even as small business confidence fell to a record low. We cover why the Bank held rates while warning they could rise, a bigger than expected fall in inflation that may not last, and what the latest borrowing figures mean ahead of the October Budget.
The month in numbers
The Bank held Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent in a six to three vote at its 30 July meeting. Inflation fell to 2.6 per cent in June, its lowest since March 2025 and below the 2.7 per cent forecast, while core inflation held at 2.6 per cent. Government borrowing came in at £16bn for June, £7.9bn lower than a year earlier. GfK consumer confidence jumped six points to minus 17, its biggest rise since November 2023, but only 18 per cent of small firms expect to grow over the next year, leaving the FSB index at a record low of minus 14.
