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Our monthly read on what moved investment markets over the past month and what it could mean looking ahead. This issue looks back at September.
In this issue
The Bank held rates again, but a third of the committee voted for a rise as the energy shock from the Middle East conflict pushes inflation up. We cover the OECD’s slightly brighter outlook, a jump in government borrowing that put pressure on the Chancellor before his first Budget, and a third straight rise in consumer confidence.
The month in numbers
The Bank held Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent in a six to three vote, with three members wanting a rise to 4 per cent. Inflation rose to 3.1 per cent in August and the Bank expects it to reach around 3.75 per cent in the final quarter. Borrowing hit £18.3bn in August, £3.5bn above the OBR forecast, and the 10 year gilt yield reached 5.41 per cent, its highest since 2007. The OECD now expects UK growth of 1.1 per cent this year, up from 0.9 per cent, while GfK consumer confidence rose to minus 13, its best reading since August 2024.
